Stephen Hunt analyses the numbers and the speed ratings
Stephen Hunt • December 10th, 2024 2:26 PM
Speed Ratings
How the track played…
There was one leader that won, with winners coming as far back as 3.9L off the leader at the 600m mark.
Winners were in lanes 2,2,6,4,1,3,6,7,8,5.
The track was a fair playing surface, with those good enough getting their chance on speed or off. Perhaps a few horses off the fence in the straight were suited best as the day went on but I feel that was exaggerated by the strong tempo from the latter races.
Marokopa Falls set a new standard for two-year-olds this season with a 91.5 rating in her 1000m win and narrowly moved ahead of Return To Conquers two-year-old peak of 91. She was well backed on Saturday/debut (from $4.50 to $3.50) and her performance was notably faster than Seamsew, who achieved an 83.5 rating over the same distance on Saturday.
Should Marokopa Falls head to the Wakefield Challenge Stakes after this performance, she’ll take a strong rating profile that will place her as the top contender.
Ladies Man had the blinkers on for the first time since January 2023 and that may have proven a master stroke as he improved notably on his recent form to run a 98 rating and win the Group 1 TAB Mufhasa Classic, defeating La Crique (97.5) by a neck. He came off previous ratings of 89.4 in the Tauranga Stakes, 93.5 in an Open Handicap and 82 at Whanganui over 1200m. This improved performance ranks equal to his career peak in the 2023 Livamol Classic, where he defeated Platinum Invador, and slightly above his 97.1 rating in the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes, where he was beaten by Muramasa at Flemington. His next level of top form shows ratings of 94.5 and 93.5 multiple times. While he may not be among the highest-rated horses we've seen, Ladies Man’s consistency and longevity make him an owner’s dream. Across his 31-start career, he has claimed two Group 1 wins, finished second seven times, and run third seven times, excelling at distances from 1600m to 2040m. Given his equal career-best performance on Saturday, there’s no reason he can’t capture further Group 1 wins.
La Crique should lose no admirers after her second-place finish. She improved on both her last-start win rating of 93.5 and her previous year peak of 97.2, achieved in the Otaki-Māori Classic, by posting a 97.5 in this race. She was given a 10/10 ride but was simply beaten by a rival who produced an even stronger peak on the day.
Platinum Attack exploded to a new peak rating of 93 with an emphatic win in the R75 over 1200m, a significant leap from his previous best of 87. Sitting in the second half of the field, off a strong tempo, it was his sharp acceleration in the final 200m that saw him pull away to a dominant 2.6 length margin at the finish. From a Group 1 Telegraph perspective, Platinum Attack’s rating still sits below the best sprinters seen this season. Contenders like Grail Seeker, Crocetti, Luberon, Babylon Berlin and Waitak have all posted ratings between 96 and 99, positioning them as the leading sprinters. It remains to be seen how many of these higher-rated sprinters will head to Trentham on December 4th. Regardless, Platinum Attack will need to find another gear to challenge the upper echelon of this year’s Open Class sprinters.
ELLERSLIE
Babylon Berlin continued her form resurgence back under the care of Ben & Ryan Foote and aided by a terrific Vinnie Colgan ride. She went fast enough early to establish control but then got a very soft time between the 800m and 400m, before sprinting quickly up the straight. Her 95.8 rating was still short of her peaks from 2023, but under the conditions of Saturday’s race and notably the upcoming Railway (SW&P), she may yet still win that elusive Group 1.
Waitak was very good, giving away 4kg to Babylon Berlin and running 96.7 in his 0.2-length second-placed finish. When normalised to weight-for-age, his 96.7 clearly out-rated the winner's 95.8. With a career peak of 97.5, he's only marginally below that level, indicating he's close to career-best form.
Sethito backed up her dynamic 93.3 rating win over 1400m at Arawa Park last start with a similar 91.5 rating win over 1400m in the Group 3 Bonecrusher Stakes. Like the start before, she ran fast time T600 and was still finishing in above average speed (+1.7L) over her final 200m. While the win sits below other recent winners (see the table below.) The quality of how she's put them together, certainly warrants consideration for a Kiwi slot.
The table below shows recent winners of the Group 3 Bonecrusher Stakes and their respective ratings.
Photograph at the top of the page: Marokopa Falls won at Trentham on December 7th, 2024. She beat Too Sweet across the line.
