Running The Numbers after Proisir Plate Day: Stephen Hunt
Stephen Hunt • September 9th, 2025 2:51 PM • 4 min read
FIVE HIGHEST RATED WINNERS FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS
AUCKLAND THOROUGHBRED RACING @ ELLERSLIE
SPEED RATINGS
How the track played…
There were two leaders that won, with winners coming as far back as 8.1L (Quintessa) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Race winners were in lanes 3,1,6,3,6,2,5,6,11,5.
Showers throughout the morning resulted in a downgrade of track (Soft 5 to Soft 6). Overall, the track played fair with no obvious bias. From race six, winners were in lanes 5+ but assisted by solid tempos which allowed the back markers to blend into the race.
Post Saturday there seems to be plenty of chit chat that the three-year-old fillies are better than the colts and geldings, but I have a slightly different opinion.
Below, I write the various steps on how I went about the rating process between the wins of both Affirmative Action and Lollapalooza.
The starting point is that the Gold Trail Stakes won by Lollapalooza was run in 73.26 seconds, with a last 600m of 36.15 vs the Sir Colin Meads Trophy won by Affirmative Action was run in 72.64 seconds, with a 35.7 last 600m. It was clearly faster overall and in the last 600m.
With no significant rain or wind changes between those two races, it's impossible to objectively have the race strength of Affirmative Action weaker than Lollapalooza.
There was good merit in Lollapalooza's last 400m and 200m split, but before that, she didn't do much, and her last 200m wasn't blistering. It was good, but not unprecedented.
Her overall last 600m was only a length better than Affirmative Action, with a slower overall time. If she's a decent horse which I have no doubt she is, then not doing much speed-wise before the 400m should see her run home quickly.
What I take from it is that Lollapalooza is looking for further than 1200m and can increase her rating up in distance. It's also reasonable to assume that if the Gold Trail Stakes on Saturday were run at a stronger tempo, she would have won by further. However, we can only rate on what they did on the day, and I landed with an 88.5 rating for the daughter by El Roca.
Affirmative Action didn't go into the meeting with any type of reputation, but unless the clock is wrong, the three-year-old gelding must be rated the better performer on the day (93.2). Anything else is subjective fudging.
Affirmative Action only had one prior start and beat He Who Dares on Saturday, who started much shorter than Lollapalooza in the G1 Sistema Stakes and finished 1.2 lengths in front of her. Before that he was just 0.3 lengths off Return To Conquer, who won the Sistema. There's a reference there to suggest it's not unreasonable that the Sir Colin Meads Trophy turned out stronger as measured by the clock.
Arabian Songbird produced a terrific return in a strong Benchmark 75 1300m, winning by 1 length with a 93 rating and firmly positioning herself as a player for some upcoming features. One of those features/challenges could be the Group 3 TAB Racing Club Mile at Riccarton over Cup week (old Coupland’s Mile), where she appears to be on the right trajectory. The history of the race suggests she needs to find one more win to gain a spot, but if she can deliver a TAB Racing Club Mile performance close to her 93 from Saturday, with a likely handicap weight of 53kg, she'll be fighting out the finish, if not winning.
Quintessa returned to the winner's stall for the first time in just over one year (371 days to be exact) with a stella 97.5-rated victory in the Group 1 Proisir Plate, ending what was only a 7-start drought since winning the Cockram at Caulfield with a 95 rating. Her performance was nothing short of dominant, racing clear last off a steady pace before unleashing the fastest sectionals of the race. Her +10.1L surge from the 600m to winning post was the standout sectional of the day, and her overall last 800m was also the best of the race, 2.8 lengths faster than the next best. Overall, this year's race matches the 97.5 rating Grail Seeker posted to win last year but falls short of the better rated winners: Callsign Mav (100 in 2021), Melody Belle (99.4 in 2018), and Kawi (99 in 2016).
La Crique again demonstrated her competitiveness at the elite level with a 94.6 rating. She’s now finished runner-up in five straight Group 1 races, but during her career she’s significantly improved her performance rating from first-up to second-up six times. That's worth keeping in mind come the Howden Insurance Mile at Te Rapa.
