Stephen Hunt: Run the numbers from Riccarton
Stephen Hunt • November 12th, 2024 10:07 AM
RICCARTON
Speed Ratings
How the track played…
There were four leaders that won, with winners coming as far back as 7.3L off the leader at the 600m mark.
Winners were in lanes 2,8,3,4,3,1,4,1,3,3,8.
Much of the narrative in the leadup was around the Soft 6 which was posted on race day morning. Going off times the track raced like a Good surface. Bellucci running 1:02.24 for the 1100m is solid for a Good 3-4, even though there are limited races over that trip. If we look at the circle races, Mazzucato running 1:22.50 is typical for a Good 3-4 at 1400m. Savaglee running 1:33.86 for 1600m, even accounting for the class, that’s much faster than a typical Good 3-4 times. I do query the track rating at the top of the day and the delay for an upgrade which didn’t occur until midway through the card. With that being said, I thought the track was a fair playing surface, with those good enough getting their chance on speed or off.
Pegasus Stakes 1000m
Illicit Dreams won the Pegasus Stakes narrowly in a bunched finish with just 0.8 lengths between the first five horses and one and a half lengths between the first seven horses across the line. The measures on the clock from this race and compressed margins resulted in a 93 rating for Illicit Dreams, which is 1.5 lengths stronger than her previous career peak but moderate in the context of the history of this race. The last three winners have rated higher: Not Guilty (94.5), Lincolns Kruz (94) and Babylon Berlin (95). Sensi is the benchmark for the race, rating 98 in 2019.
Metropolitan Trophy 2600m
The Metropolitan was run at a breakneck early pace, 14 lengths faster than the days average on my scale. From the past few 2600m races at Riccarton, the fastest first section has been 127.23 and the others have been 129+. Uncharacteristically, Mehzabeen led on Saturday and went out 1:24.59, that’s very fast no matter how you cut it. She set himself no easy task but showed the distance was no problem, maintaining her effort in the straight to secure a half-length victory. She earned a 94 rating, 2.5 lengths better than her 89 peak during the summer.
Beavertown Boy was excellent in defeat, improving on his 86.5 rating from the R75 Otaki win to post a 91.5 here. His form this time in has taken him to new levels, and with 53kg in the NZ Cup, he shapes as the leading chance.
Aljay ran a solid race into third, posting a 92 rating, which was just over a length shy of his 95.5 win over 2000m at Riccarton last start. With top weight of 60kg in the Cup, a challenge but he's still positioned to be a competitive chance.
Overall, it was a very tough test of 2600m, delivering us the ideal form reference for this Saturday’s 3200m NZ Cup.
2000 Guineas 1600m
Savaglee towered above his opposition on ratings in the Group 1 2000 Guineas, and the race played out that way, justifying his favouritism with a comfortable 2.8 length win which also continued the tremendous record favourites have in the race, winning 11 of the past 13 editions. Time raters will note that his overall time was very fast compared to the typical standards. A more rounded assessment still indicates a very impressive win considering how the race was set up by the unplaced So Naive, who led at a fast pace and was poorly rated to optimise his performance. Savaglee recorded a 98.2, which is very strong by historical standards with the prior eight-year average of 96.4 and it does make him the second-highest rated winner since 2016. He has rated 88.7, 95.5, 98 and 98.3 in his last four starts, giving him a nice upward trajectory. A profile like that increases the chances that we have yet to see the best of him.
The table below shows recent winners of the Group 1 2000 Guineas and their respective ratings.
TE RAPA
Legacy Lodge Sprint 1200m
Babylon Berlin is back! That was the resounding message we all took away from Te Rapa. Her 98.5 rating was short of her peaks from 2023 of 103, 101.4 and 101, but importantly, she showed that tactical speed and sharp turn of foot which remain her greatest assets, allowing her to optimise her competitiveness from prominent positions in the run, an invaluable trait at the top level. Babylon Berlin heads to the Counties Bowl at Pukekohe in a couple of weeks and is likely to clash with Crocetti, Sacred Satono, Waitak and Luberon.
Picture at the Top of the Page: Savaglee on the way to a dominant win in the 2000 Guineas. Photo: Race Images NZ
