Top trainer explains what punters should look for on heavy tracks
Michael Guerin • July 25th, 2025 10:38 AM • 4 min read
- Andrew Forsman has had his best season since former training partner Murray Baker retired, sitting fourth on the national trainer’s premiership with his best strike rate of his solo career.
- The Cambridge trainer is closing in on 1000 domestic wins (currently 991) but has trained well over that number if his Australian victories are counted.
- Forsman has winning chances at both Te Rapa and Ōtaki tomorrow.
Trainer Andrew Forsman has a float full of horses and a head full of questions heading to Te Rapa tomorrow.
Forsman has had his most successful season since the retirement of former partner Murray Baker, training 56 winners in New Zealand with his strike rate of 6.29 the best in his solo career, sitting fourth on the national premiership.
“It has been a really good year, probably without too many big-name or star horses but I feel like we have got the best out of plenty of them,” Forsman said.
“It is very satisfying and we have some nice horses for next season too.”
For all Forsman’s experience and ability he admits the chances of many of those he sends to Te Rapa and Ōtaki tomorrow come down to a factor the eye simply can’t see.
“At this stage of the season what sort of heavy track you get and whether they can handle it dictates so much,” he explains.
“The difference between a Heavy 8 and a bottomless Heavy 10 is huge and once you get to the really heavy tracks, it is nearly impossible to know whether they will handle it or not.
“If they don’t, they simply can’t win.”
Forsman says the best indicator he can come up with as to whether a horse will handle trench warfare-level tracks is strength and size.
“Those bigger and most importantly stronger horses tend to handle the really heavy tracks better, because it can be a battle of who is strongest.
“But it is still really hard to predict and a lot comes down to how heavy it is and whether there is rain on the day, or even the day before.”
The best example of the winter unknowns for Forsman tomorrow is Force Of Nature (Race 6, No 7) at Te Rapa, who has come a long way in a short time but may even skip tomorrow’s open 1300m if the weather deteriorates.
“He won here on a Heavy 8 last start but I’d prefer it to come back a point from the Heavy 10 it was today [Thursday],” Forsman said.
“He is a really nice horse who I think will get black type but we don’t want to be running him on anything too heavy.”
Saint Bathans (Race 5, No 1) is a one-time Rich Hill Mile runner-up who has shown only glimpses of that ability since, so Forsman has opted for a different approach tomorrow, putting him in an R75 with a carded 63.5kgs but dropping to 59.5kgs with apprentice Sam McNab aboard.
“We know the ability is there but he hasn’t been showing it,” Forsman said.
“We put blinkers on the last two runs but they didn’t help so we are taking him back the track where he last went well [second three starts ago].
“He is big enough to carry a decent weight but it is up to him now.”
Forsman has two other reps wearing the No 1 saddlecloth early in the card, with Richard And I (Race 2) and Rio Grande (Race 3) both getting star jockey Michael McNab.
“They can both win but it comes down again to how they handle the track. But I do like Richard And I and think he will improve on last start.”
Forsman also sends one-from-one filly Accentuate to Ōtaki for the $80,000 Ryder Stakes and an ideal opportunity to get black type and again says how deep the track ends up will be crucial.
“She was really good winning on debut at when it was pretty heavy so she should handle it,” he said.
“I really like her but it is a nice field with a couple of horses with a fair bit more experience than her.
“So a lot will depend how they all handle the track.”
This article first appeared in the New Zealand Herald
