Stephen Hunt runs the Wellington Cup numbers
Stephen Hunt • February 3rd, 2026 5:30 PM • 3 min read
Stephen Hunt reviews the Trentham speed ratings, track bias, standout wins and horses to follow as Manzor Blue lands the Wellington Cup.
FIVE HIGHEST RATED WINNERS FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS
WELLINGTON RC @ TRENTHAM
SPEED RATINGS
How the track played…
There was one leader that won, with winners coming as far back as 6.1L (Ultimate Habit) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Race winners were in lanes 1,2,2,5,5,6,2,1,3,2.
The track played relatively even for circle races (1400m+), with perhaps lanes 1-3 best in the TAB chute races.
RACE DAY SUMMARY:
Moment Of The Day ❤️ | Manzor Blue and Kate Hercock taking out the Cup |
Peach Of A Ride 🍑 | Bruno Queiroz on Anderson Bridge (R10) |
Horses To Follow 🔎 | |
Punters Get Paid 💵 | Miss Jones (R1), Hivari $12 - $5 (R3) |
Punters Left It In Thad's Bag 💰 | |
Tactics Questioned ❓ | |
Forgive File 🙏 | R4 Unusual Invader & Dragon Blossom – held up. |
Miss Jones 88 - was impressive again, leading all the way and dominating the MAAT 1200m.
While she controlled the race, she certainly didn’t steal it, setting a genuine tempo and then ramping it up from the 600m to 400m, giving every chaser their chance if they were good enough. None could seriously threaten.
Ultimate Habit (92.6) produced a high-quality win in the Group 3 Lowland Stakes to put herself firmly in Group One NZ Oaks calculations.
Positioned six lengths off a below average tempo to the 600m mark, she was disadvantaged by the race shape but closed powerfully.
Her last 600m was +11.4 lengths above my standard, assisted by her outstanding last 200m (10.97) the only horse to break 11 seconds for the entire meeting.
A more favourable setup, either settling closer or a stronger early tempo, can see her rate higher. The 2400m should provide the ideal scenario to settle closer.
The Precursor shaped as an exciting progressive stayer after his first two outings this preparation, and he strengthened that profile on Saturday with a dominant 85 rating win in the Remutaka Classic, scoring by 0.8 lengths.
He was far better positioned on Saturday, just 2.6 lengths off the lead at the 600m compared to 6.4 lengths back at his previous start.
From there he was able to produce the strong sprint which we’ve seen from him at the mile, but his better positioning saw him produce a dominant win.
At present, his ratings are below the usual mark needed to be competitive for an Auckland Cup, but the potential is there.
Trav did win last year’s Cup at $21 off a similar 86 base, though that was a historically low-rating edition. More typically, runners that finish in the top four have shown at least a 90 and are often closer to 92 in their lead-ups.
By that measure, The Precursor still has work to do if the stable were to push on. However, there are positives.
It was his third run off a 203-day break, stepping from 1600m to 2100m and lightly raced with only 10 starts and genuine stayers usually take longer to reach their peak, there is every reason to expect further improvement in time and up in trip.
Archaic Smile outstanding return to racing on Saturday, winning the Open Sprint after 80 days on the sidelines.
Not only did she win, but his 94 rating is the second-best of her career, behind only the 95.2 she ran in 2024 Gr.1 Sistema Stakes when runner-up as a two-year-old. Her three best ratings happen to be at 1200m, I wonder if she’s best kept fresh over the shorter trips.
The six-year-old and runner-up, Navigator, who conceded 8kg to Archaic Smile, ran a 97.2 rating normalised to weight-for age, the highest in the race. He is obviously thriving with his runs well spaced and down the TAB Chute.
The Wellington Cup – a few days to reflect on another chapter in the Cups history. Some thoughts...
I couldn't have expected Manzor Blue to win the race under any circumstances, but I'm happy she did. This win by an unheralded horse and jockey, an appreciation for the "underdog," can only be positive spin for the game.
Manzor Blue posted a 90-rating when normalised to weight-for-age, marking a clear new peak above her previous best of 84.5.
At the race weights, her rating was 93.6, making this the lowest-rated Wellington Cup since 2017 (with Lincoln King’s 93.8 the next lowest).
While this detail may interest dedicated form analysts and ratings enthusiasts, it holds little significance in the broader context of what Cups often represent.
Not since 1999, when Miss Bailey won under Leanne Isherwood, have we seen a Wellington Cup that compared.
