Stephen Hunt runs the numbers - Whanganui Review
Stephen Hunt • June 3rd, 2025 4:01 PM • 4 min read
WHANGANUI
Speed Ratings
How the track played…
There were three leaders that won, with winners coming as far back as 7.1L (Platinum Diamond) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Winners were in lanes 3,2,5,2,1,2,1,2,1.
When I review meetings like this it’s obvious to be forgiving for those that were back off the speed, especially if they were also unsuited by the pace. However, I'm cautious about going over the top with that. If a horse back in the field is $3 and it's only working home no better than others longer in the market, then it's not necessary a forgive for me. I'd expect shorter priced horses unsuited by the pattern to be doing better than those longer in the market. The track variant suggests to me the track was probably better than Heavy 8, especially when I look at the variant against past meetings that were classed as Heavy. It was probably more like a Soft 7 on time, but that's neither here nor there.
Ima Brazen One led all the way to win the Open Sprint, where it was a significant advantage to settle on the fence and be close to the lead. Her 88.5 rating slightly below on the 88.8 she ran finishing second to Silent Is Gold at the same venue in late April.
If I look at past Whanganui meetings on anything classed as Soft through to Heavy 8 over the 1200m, there are 29 races. The two fastest (prior to Saturday) were Prowess in April 2022 (70.81) and Meglio De Falcrest (71.03). The ground was Soft 5 there, but going by the variant it was closer to a Good 4. Ima Brazen One (70.45) recorded a significantly faster time than those two races on genuine wet ground, whether you call it a 7 or 8. The best time on Soft 6 or worse is (71.81).
When often dealing with such a monster standout on the clock, the winner has won by a big margin, but the first three were just separated by 1.3 lengths. The first four horses (4th beaten 2.6L) have all run 6+ lengths faster than the next fastest over 1200m at Whanganui on Soft 6 or worse (since 2021), with the fourth horse in Tavis Court having no/little form whatsoever.
When there is such a strong track bias and having to translate the clock to individual Performance Ratings, I have to be very cautious. It's one thing to rely on the clock/track, but it's another thing to ignore what intuition and experience says, especially when you've looked in depth at history, like in this case.
I marked the winner (Ima Brazen One) 88.5. She ran 88.8 a few runs ago. It puts the second horse Farravallo (first up 230 days) at 91. That was the peak he ran when winning here in September. It puts the third horse Lazio (first up 184 days) at 87.1. That's equal to his career peak from June 2024 when also first-up 162 days and slightly ahead of the 86.5 he ran a few starts ago. Tavis Court gets 87.3, carrying more weight than the third horse. That's clearly the best he's gone since last July.
The clock says it should be much higher, but that doesn't make any sense to me. Marking it higher than what I have now, suddenly, pushes the first three horses to strong new peaks, when two of them were first-up off long spells. I could’ve pushed it a point higher and given them all slight new peaks, but my gut says to leave it where it is.
Invariably a more measured assessment using principles like above, based on past ratings, leads to a more accurate outcome for future reference, certainly more than blindly following the clock. It will be worth reviewing later though, but it will be interesting to see how the subsequent form pans out and how the market treats the top three-four from this race going forward.
Ears back was another that benefited from the track pattern, hence why she firmed on race day ($14 into $8). The six-year-old mare showed nice, sustained speed to lead and win easily over 1600m, with good margins back through the field. Her 93 rating was an improvement from her previous peak of 91. While the win secured her first Stakes success, in the context of her overall form profile, this victory does read like somewhat of a spike and while she has won on Soft 7 ground, her best ratings have been on better going. That makes me a little cautious should she return to Heavy tracks in the near future.
