Stephen Hunt runs the numbers on Karaka Millions night

FIVE HIGHEST RATED WINNERS FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS

AUCKLAND THOROUGHBRED RACING @ ELLERSLIE

SPEED RATINGS

RACE DAY SUMMARY:

Moschino took a small but meaningful step up, improving on multiple prior peaks in the 87 – 88.6 range to break the 90 barrier for the first time with a 90.4 rating win. He was ideally suited leading at a slow speed with Logan Bates gradually winding up the tempo from the 800m, preventing the chasers from making up cheap ground. It was an ideal scenario, he couldn't have been better ridden or better suited, so the figure is very much him at his ceiling.

Belle Cheval continued Te Akau’s strong record in the Almanzor Trophy, producing a terrific return in the Gr.3 Almanzor Trophy over 1200m. She came from 3.8L back at the 600m to produce a sharp turn of foot between the 400m and 200m to put the race away, and was still more than solid late, running an above average last 200m split. The 91.8 rating sits just below her 92.6 peak in the Gr.1 1000 Guineas (1600m) and ahead of her 87.5 3YO Maiden (1400m) win prior. It was an outstanding performance at a trip likely short of her best and verified her NZB Kiwi slot. She deserves to be considered on par with the next best chances against Well Written.

Tuxedo reacted just as Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray hoped with blinkers back on, running just below his 92.3 peak when sixth in the Gr.1 Howden Insurance Mile. Settling just worse of midfield and 7.1 lengths off the lead at the 600m, he was given a superb ride by Opie Bosson, no panic on the turn before switching across heels to surge late and hit the front inside the last 50m. The fast tempo played perfectly to his pattern, enabling him to make up the entire 7.1 length deficit while only running -4.2 lengths below standard for his final 600m. He looks suited stepping to 2000m, but it’s worth noting that the race shape here was highly favourable to off-pace runners, including third placed Knobelas (89.9).

Dream Roca etched her name into the history books with victory in the TAB Karaka Million 2YO, becoming the stable’s third winner in the juvenile dash for cash. On pre-race form, the Listed event looked very even but punters backed Kinnaird into a $2.00 fav, reminding me of the Play That Song plunge from the 2020 Karaka Millions. Dream Roca’s 87 rating win is the lowest winning rating since at least 2017. An 87 rating is 2.8 lengths below the previous nine-year winning average of the race, which sat at 92.7.

Well Written exploded to a big new peak of 103.3 to win TAB Karaka Millions 3YO, adding another chapter to her already impressive story. She produced the best overall time rating of the meeting, running 5.5 lengths faster than the standard and still closing with a +1.4 lengths last 200m. That blend of strong time and genuine late speed is the hallmark of elite quality.

Her rating profile within five unbeaten runs, which also includes another 100.5 and 99.5 rating, confirms she is still on an upward trajectory. She has the second highest rated 3YO performance in NZ since the start of the 2017/18 season. Imperatriz is the highest at 103.5 when she won the Gr.1 F&M WFA Breeders Stakes over 1600m in April of her 3YO season and seems the most obvious comparison for Well Written at this stage.

He Who Dares showed good early speed from a handy draw and lead at a strong tempo. He slipped away from the chasers on the turn and outside Well Written held a dominant 2.8 length margin to the line/rest of the field. His figure of 93 sits just below the 95.9 winner’s average.

Jigsaw rated 99.3 to win the Group One feature, displaying sustained pace, with every cross-check you want to us, the clock itself, comparisons to other 1200m races on the day, and the spread of margins behind backed up by ratings of those horses, all supporting Jigsaw’s figure. The win continued his strong form revival for Cindy Alderson to the elite level. It is his fourth straight win after figures of 97.7 in the Apache Classic, 98 in the Gr.2 McEwen and 100 in the Meteorite, these latest numbers sit just behind his career peaks of 102.5 and 100.3 from early 2023. He is clearly back near his best, which is a terrific feat at start number 37.