Stephen Hunt runs the numbers on Hāwera
Stephen Hunt • October 8th, 2025 9:16 AM • 5 min read
FIVE HIGHEST RATED WINNERS FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS
EGMONT RC @ HAWERA
SPEED RATINGS
Note: When working with speed figures, sometimes you get meetings like Hawera where the variations just don't seem to make sense and it's hard to reconcile them. There's no obvious reason why there are such differences from one race or group of races to another. It's one of the reasons why performance ratings are a better tool, especially when you allow them to be influenced by speed ratings but then also allow them to lean on what we know about the ability of the horses prior to the race I’m rating.
How the track played…
There were two leaders that won, with winners coming as far back as 7.9L (Trauma) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Race winners were in lanes 3,1,7,2,4,5,8,4.
Winners were evenly spread on/off speed, one/two off in run adv, then 3+ on turn and in the home straight was best. It was important to build momentum from the 600m.
RACEDAY SUMMARY
Moment Of The Day ❤️ | |
Peach Of A Ride 🍑 | |
Horses To Follow 🔎 | War Princess (R2) |
Punters Get Paid 💵 | |
Punters Left It In Thad's Bag 💰 | The meeting entirely |
Forgive File 🙏 |
War Princess was heavily backed, firming from $2.60 into $1.70 before dominating her opposition with a strong front-running performance.
She recorded a new peak rating of 92 in his 3-length win, a sharp improvement from the 79 she recorded when finishing seventh in the Whanganui Guineas over 1200m just 35 days prior.
While leading at a moderate tempo played to War Princess's advantage, her effort stood out as she still posted the fastest finishing sectionals in the race, including the final 200m.
There were no excuses for her rivals, who not only didn't close the gap but also lost ground on her over the final 200m of the race.
Who Knows was outstanding in her Egmont Cup win, with a 95-peak rating.
She was ideally suited to racing midfield in a solid, even-pressure speed test over 2100m, where stamina came to the fore. That's not to take anything away from her win, though.
What impressed me most was her turn of foot from the 300m to 100m mark, clocking a very fast split and going from four lengths off the lead to hitting the front, scoring by 3.5 lengths.
This was an impressive return given she was first-up over 2100m after 56 days off. It also highlights a terrific training performance by Niall Quinn and his team.
Such a win draws interest regarding the horse's prospects in the New Zealand Cup over the two-mile trip. Does she have a chance in the race?
I anticipate a handicap weight comparable to what she carried on the weekend (57.5) and with history showing the winner average in the last eight years being 94.7, Who Knows only needs to replicate Saturday’s performance over the staying distance to be one of the horses to beat.
The Taranaki Breeders was run very slowly by Group Three standards to the 800m mark, before pace was injected into the race.
That should’ve favoured those closer to the lead, including the well-backed Mary Shan, but she was under pressure from a long way out.
The winner Hi Yo Sass Bomb was the run of the race, not ideally suited by the race shape, she recorded high-class sectionals from the 400m mark, stamping her run with more merit than the raw 92.2 rating indicates.
She was only second-up on Saturday, and I wouldn't be surprised if she elevated to a rating in the 95 to 96 range this preparation or even better.
Rareza, who worked three wide without cover finished into second. Her 89.6 rating also carries some added merit due to the tough run, with something in the 90-91 range reasonable.
History has taught me not to get too carried away in adding extra to wide runs though. While challenging, they can also offer advantages like being clear of other interference and uninterrupted momentum, which is important for horses that settle back in the field.
Regardless of the extra merit, Rareza is clearly in for an exciting preparation, with four wins from only eleven starts.
