Stephen Hunt runs the numbers on group racing at Ellerslie
Stephen Hunt • February 21st, 2025 1:30 PM
ELLERSLIE ASSESSMENTS – 22nd FEBRUARY 2025
Weather: Fine. Fresh southerlies, easing in the evening.
Track Conditions: Soft 5 (Fri am) – Rail +5m.
Track Pattern: G4/Rail +5m generally produces a fairly even surface. This is first G4/+5m at Ellerlsie since December 12th – on pacers dominated for the most part, but hot
tempo races allowed backmarkers to finish over the top.
tempo races allowed backmarkers to finish over the top.
R5 3:27PM AVONDALE GUINEAS 3YO SW 2100M
Early Speed & Position Map - Average Early Speed
There's always some uncertainty about 3YO's going up to 2100m, but Willydoit's
win against the older horses at R75 grade was dynamic. He ran fast overall time with fast finishing sectionals, stamping the quality in his 96 rating. To put that into context, Willydoit rates 2.7L stronger than his opposition.
win against the older horses at R75 grade was dynamic. He ran fast overall time with fast finishing sectionals, stamping the quality in his 96 rating. To put that into context, Willydoit rates 2.7L stronger than his opposition.
Not many have gone around shorter than Willydoit will here. He carries a monster boom, so the market never underestimates him, but he keeps backing it up. Has a clear class edge here and that likely offsets queries around draw/map and first go at 2100m.
Hinekaha is a threat and there is a small edge in the price at $6.50. Those behind will need a lot to go right (or wrong with the favourite) to reel him in here.
Suggested bet:
- Hard to find an edge to play here. Not keen to be against Willydoit, but he does get a potentially sticky map, which makes the $1.75 or so unattractive. Thought Bourbon Proof and Oceana Dream looked way too short early, so possibly some multiple value in some others with better rating credentials.
R7 4:37PM OTAKI-MAORI WFA CLASSI WFA 1600M
Early Speed & Position Map - Average Early Speed
El Vencedor brings a powerful rating profile to this race with brilliant performances in the Listed Fulton Family Stakes in winning and carrying 61kg. When adjusted to weight-for-age, he registered an impressive 101.8. He then backed that up with a 101 rating when winning the Gr.1 Herbie Dyke Stakes over 2000m. He’s back in trip on Saturday but did win the Fulton Family Stakes over 1500m when coming back from 2000m (37 days there vs 14 days here), so I won’t be viewing it as a negative. With his positive racing style (on speed) and the ability to post strong figures here and away from Ellerslie suggests he’s becoming the complete racehorse.
Orchestral produced a stellar performance in the Aotearoa Classic over 1600m, bouncing back impressively from a run of outs as a four-year-old to post a strong rating of 95.2. The race was run at a genuine tempo which allowed her true ability to shine through. From a rating sense, she’s yet to hit those peaks from 12 months ago of 101.5 (2400m), 100 (2100m) and 99 (2000m), so there's a minor query if 1600m will allow her to show her best and match the favourite in recent ratings.
Suggested bet:
- El Vencedor to win at $2.50.
R8 5:12PM UNCLE REMUS STAKES 3YO SW+P 1400M
Early Speed & Position Map – Slow/Average Early Speed
Opening market had all six runners under double figure odds. That's normally a red flag for a trap race which is built around the NZB Kiwi where most runners are likely to peak in two weeks’ time.
Checkmate brings the best performance rating into the race (94), but I can do without taking $3.70 in a race like this, when the map & pace scenario presents a challenge.
Betting interest in the race revolves around a small outlay on Vegas Queen. She brings a very competitive LS rating, will land on speed and should get every opportunity to run out the 1400m it what could unfolded as a tactical event.
Suggested bet:
- Vegas Queen 1x3 play.
Picture at the Top of the Page: El Vencedor winning the Gr.1 Herbie Dyke Stakes at Te Rapa. Photo: Race Images NZ
