Stephen Hunt runs the numbers on the Howden Insurance Mile
Stephen Hunt • September 30th, 2025 5:00 PM • 5 min read
FIVE HIGHEST RATED WINNERS FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS
WAIKATO THOROUGHBRED RACING @ TE RAPA
SPEED RATINGS
How the track played…
There was one leader that won, with winners coming as far back as 6L (Whiskey N Roses) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Race winners were in lanes 5,3,4,7,8,3,2,7,7.
At the top of the day the track went up as a Heavy 10 but was upgraded to a Heavy 9 after the first race. Off times – the track played as a Heavy 8 and no worse.
Winners were mostly one off in the run and tended to get further away from the 400m point, with lanes 3+ most advantaged but overall, the track played fair with no obvious bias.
RACEDAY SUMMARY
Moment Of The Day ❤️ | Waitak (R8) |
Peach Of A Ride 🍑 | |
Horses To Follow 🔎 | |
Punters Get Paid 💵 | Astoria Brooke (R1), Transcend (R4) |
Punters Left It In Thad's Bag 💰 | |
Tactics Questioned ❓ | The original track rating of a Heavy 10 |
Forgive File 🙏 |
Notabadspillane announced himself as a promising staying prospect to follow with a dominant 2.5 length win in the R75 2100m, posting a 90 rating. He’s only 15 starts into his career and very much looks like an untapped staying talent. He shows the ability to relax well in the run and then produces a sharp turn of foot when it counts.
This performance gives his handicap rating a significant lift, helping him to make the field in Group staying races in the spring. Based on Saturday’s performance, that’s a very realistic progression. If he can find another couple of lengths improvement, targets like the Gr.3 NZ Cup or Waikato Cup can come into play.
Transcend made a big leap from her Ruakākā maiden win, jumping from an 82.2 rating to a 95 in the MAAT race over 1300m. What made Saturday’s effort stand out was the way she did it. Never closer than three-wide in running, but importantly always in a comfortable rhythm, as George Rooke highlighted post-race. From the 800m, she built her speed with each section, running progressively faster and producing her best rating over the final 200m. To clock fast overall time with her strongest work late underlines her class and points to the 1600m Guineas being even more suitable.
Whiskey 'N Roses produced a brilliant first-up win in the Open Sprint. After settling a clear last off an even speed, he didn't gain any ground from the 600m to 400m as the tempo lifted but then ran home powerfully from 6 lengths back off the lead with impressive sectionals to reel in the well supported Midnight Edition. The question going forward is whether the four-year-old can reproduce that performance/rating on better tracks.
As for Midnight Edition, as much as it hurts that he didn’t get the job done for punters (including myself), it’s hard to be too critical with the performance. His 95.4 rating works out to be less than a length from his previous rating/win. If anything, and no fault of the jockey, he was exposed too early in the straight and may appreciate some cover before letting down.
Magic Carpet caused a major upset in the Group 2 feature, defying his $31 SP to win over 1400m, achieving a career-best rating of 88. This marks a significant improvement from his previous peak of 81.4 at his last start and continues his upward trend after a 78.8 rating at the start before. While the win secured him Group 2 success, Magic Carpet’s 88 rating does fall well below the standard set by recent winners of the race, sitting 2.9 lengths under the 93.9 median rating for Hawkes Bay Guineas winners since 2016. Magic Carpet’s rating is the lowest in that timeframe, while elite performers like Catalyst (101) set the benchmark in recent years. From a Gr.1 2000 Guineas perspective, Magic Carpet's rating sits below the best three-year-olds seen this season. Contenders like Affirmative Action, He Who Dares and Churmatt have all posted ratings between 92 and 94, positioning them as the leading sprinter/milers in this age group. Despite this, Magic Carpet’s upward trajectory means we can’t rule out further improvement.
Waitak made a big statement over the mile, running an impressive 98 rating and firmly positioning himself as a major player for this season’s Weight-For-Age races. His performance was nothing short of impressive, racing midfield off a steady pace before unleashing the fastest sectionals of the race over the final 800m, 600m, 400m, and 200m - his last 800m rating (+4.2 lengths) was notably the best of the entire meeting. It’s been well documented that he has a low percentage get-back racing style, but in 2025 he has now won three of his past eight starts, which is a more than healthy strike rate for a horse that consistently races at the top level.
La Crique was gallant in defeat, improving on her 94.6 rating from the Proisir Plate to post a 97.1 here. Remarkably, she's now rated 93 or higher in 20 of her 22 starts since the start of the 2022/23 season, with 9 of those at 97 or above. Her consistency over so many runs makes her one of the most reliable high-level performers seen in New Zealand racing. Her Spring campaign is shaping up to be another good one.
Ladies Man (Blinkers On) was terrific in finishing third, posting a 94.9 rating, which was just over a length shy of his (98 rating) Group 1 victory over 1600m at Trentham last year. With the step up to 2040m in the Livamol Classic, he's positioned to be a very competitive chance.
