Stephen Hunt runs New Plymouth and Te Rapa numbers
Stephen Hunt • May 27th, 2025 3:03 PM • 4 min read
NEW PLYMOUTH
Speed Ratings
How the track played…
There were four leaders that won, with winners coming as far back as 4.9L (Sinbin) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Winners were in lanes 2,2,1,2,5,2,1,2.
My review process, done consistently for all meetings, shows that being fence-in-run and lanes 1-3 in the straight gave significant advantage. The data supports that. When you consider performance vs expected based on Starting Prices, many of the day's biggest over-performers were on-pace and close to the rail in running. My conclusion is that we saw a vast pattern, which we see many times at New Plymouth over the Autumn/Winter period. I'd be bonusing any runner that came from back and wide.
There was plenty to like about the 84-rating debut win of Paltrow Miss. The pace in this race was slow through the middle stages, and even though she was well positioned, outside leader. She let down with a powerful finish, clocking the sixth best last 200m of the entire meeting. She was still full of running through the line, with the 3-length margin displaying just how dominant she was over that opposition. She's undoubtedly better than the 84 rating indicates and will appreciate getting over further in the future.
When drawing comparisons between Paltrow Miss and her stablemate Read About It. Paltrow Miss has a debut rating of 84. Read About It recorded ratings of 74 (debut) and 85.2 (Ryder win) as a 2-year-old. Paltrow Miss will almost certainly follow the path of Read About It with her sights set on the Listed Ryder Stakes at Otaki on July the 26th.
Privy Garden was having her first attempt beyond 1800m in her 16-start career, but she relished the 2000m, running a clear new peak of 93.5. That better her previous best of 85.5 from her last start win out of Arawa Park. Visually it may have looked like she got it all her own way in front, allowing her to sprint away from them. However, that wasn't the case. She ran along on the lead at a genuine speed for Open Class and pressured those chasing with a very fast 600m to 400m split. The race was set up for those chasing to finish strongly, but they couldn't cope with the cruising speed of Privy Garden, and it dulled their finishing ability. All bar the runner-up Tavi Ann ran a slower last 200m than Privy Garden, despite conserving more energy in the race's early stages.
The Open Sprint, won by Chajaba over Make Time, looks like a strong form reference for the Winter. They ran a good time for the 1400m and finished fast. Chajaba returned after being off the scene for 239 days with a 91.8 rating, slightly better than his 91 peak from last preparation.
Tobias was outstanding in running fourth from back in the field with a strong last 600, highly disadvantaged by the lack of speed up front. His 88.2 rating had more merit and is a career best performance. An interesting observation in his form profile is that his three best career runs are at New Plymouth for ratings of 88.2 on Saturday (with more merit), 87.1, and 87. In 25 other career starts, he has only once exceeded the 83 rating barrier - an 85 fourth placing in the Group 3 Metric Mile at Whanganui over 1600m last preparation.
TE RAPA
Velocious has always been a horse with serious talent, but a lack of tactical speed as a three-year-old has often been her downfall, leaving herself with too much to do over the final 400m of his race. Aided by the eight-horse field and a top Michael McNab ride, she was much closer on Saturday than we’ve typically seen her in the past. She was just 1.8 lengths off the leader Shoes at the 600m mark, compared to an average of 5.8 lengths from her five runs this season (median 5.1). On the day, only Gospodin bettered the very fast last 600m speed rating clocked by Velocious. A 92.1 performance rating for her win was a clear best for this season, but still 2.5 lengths below her best form as a two-year-old.
