Stephen Hunt: Running the numbers on Livamol Classic Day
Stephen Hunt • October 21st, 2025 3:57 PM • 5 min read
FIVE HIGHEST RATED WINNERS FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS
AUCKLAND THOROUGHBRED RACING @ ELLERSLIE
SPEED RATINGS
How the track played…
There were two leaders that won, with winners coming as far back as 8.7L (Arabian Songbird) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Race winners were in lanes 1,1,3,7,2,4,2,6,5,6.
The track was posted as a Soft 5 on race day morning but was quickly upgraded to a Good 4. With warm weather and dry conditions, the track played quick, which was reflected by the times. Overall, the track raced relatively even.
RACE DAY SUMMARY:
Punters Get Paid 💵
Swiss Prince (Race 2), Tisse (Race 4), Well Written (Race 7), War Of Succession (Race 10)
Swiss Prince (Race 2), Tisse (Race 4), Well Written (Race 7), War Of Succession (Race 10)
Punters Left It In Thad's Bag 💰
Golden Wings (Race 1), Tardelli (Race 8), Quintessa (Race 9), Kiwi Skyhawk (Race 10)
Golden Wings (Race 1), Tardelli (Race 8), Quintessa (Race 9), Kiwi Skyhawk (Race 10)
Tactics Questioned ❓
Race 4 R75 2100m - early pace (-26.2L below standard) near barrier trial tempo. Only 1.2L separating the top 7. Form?
Race 4 R75 2100m - early pace (-26.2L below standard) near barrier trial tempo. Only 1.2L separating the top 7. Form?
Forgive File 🙏
Race 6 – Geneva (Held Up), Race 8 - Electron (Raced Wide), Race 9 – Ladies Man (Cardiac Arrhythmia)
Race 6 – Geneva (Held Up), Race 8 - Electron (Raced Wide), Race 9 – Ladies Man (Cardiac Arrhythmia)
(RACE 7) WINDSOR PARK STUD SOLILOQUY STAKES 3YOF SW 1400M
Well Written maintained her perfect record and confirmed her status as a new star on the New Zealand scene with a 100.5 rating win in the Group 2 feature, a big new peak from her debut win of 85. The performance elevates her into the conversation as the most exciting horse in New Zealand right now.
Post race there has been some chit chat that suggests how unlucky both Tajana and Lollapalooza were and knocking the win of a horse that stalked a hot speed and won by 6.8 lengths at just her second start, claiming that the backmarkers didn't have the acceleration to get into the race when it mattered most were somehow hard done by the setup of the race.
When looking at the closing splits, Tajana was only about 1 length faster than Well Written over the final 200m after doing no work early out the back and Lollapalooza was only about 1.3 lengths faster.
For me the key is that all the horses in that race were running particularly slowly over the final 200m, (evidenced by the race sectionals) so those out the back had every possible chance to run home faster and make up more ground, especially considering the energy they saved early. The fact those backmarkers couldn't suggest a lack of talent more than being horribly suited by the race shape. Really good horses that get back off a hot pace like that are often storming home, the likes of Tajana and Lollapalooza weren't doing that.
I do think many of the beaten runners can improve in a more even tempo where they’re closer and that will close the gap and Well Written wouldn't be able to track that type of speed over a mile and see it out. However, the fact the chasers were also finding the line slowly says that they certainly didn't finish the race with a stack of unused energy, they were all gassed.
As a punter, one of the biggest traps you can fall into in racing is backmarkers closing late but were running slow sectionals, just not as slow as those up front. Horses that don't have the acceleration to get into the race when it matters most and then only make an impression when the race is over are traps.
On pedigree, the likes of Tajana and Savvy Donna set up as 1600m to 2000m types. That's about the only angle you could use to prop up an argument that they ran many lengths below what they could have because the pace of the race put them out of their comfort zone. Even then, it's an angle to say they can improve, not an angle to excuse being beaten 6.8 lengths.
Yes, there is a query on Well Written at a mile and she's only had two starts, less seasoned than the others but I'm confident to say she's going to end up the best horse to come out of Saturday’s race. It's a huge stretch to suggest that any of the others from the Soliloquy are better than her, all had every possible chance to do much more than what they did.
(RACE 8) ELSDON PARK OPN HCP 1400M
Arabian Songbird thrived in the fast, high-pressure 1400m, scoring back-to-back wins at Ellerslie and earning a 93 rating. That effort matches her career peak from her first up win over 1300m just a few weeks ago.
Tardelli’s run was far from disappointing. He finished 1.3 lengths behind Arabian Songbird in third and gave her 4.5kg relative to WFA, he returned the superior figure when adjusted for weight, rating 94.2. On face value it may have seemed a flat run as $1.90 favourite, especially for his backers. However, after travelling three-wide off a fast pace, he rolled forward from the 600m and was the one who challenged the lead at the 400m mark. Despite that early work, he fought strongly in the straight, holding off all but two challengers, who had softer runs.
(RACE 9) LIVAMOL CLASSIC WFA 2040M
Livamol Classic, October 18th, Won by Waitak
Waitak made it back-to-back Group 1 wins with a dominant performance in the Livamol Classic, running an elite 101.5 rating. That’s a +1.5 length improvement on his previous peak of 98 when winning the Howden Insurance Mile and it sits 1.4 lengths above the eight-year Livamol average, but for me the manner of the win was more impressive.
As Waitak did in the second leg, he gave away 5+ lengths at the 600m off a moderate tempo by Group 1 standards, but once the speed ramped up from the 800m mark, the horse used his trademark turn of foot to reel in El Vencedor, aided by a gun Craig Grylls ride.
The table below shows recent winners of the Livamol Classic and their respective ratings.
