Stephen Hunt: Running Saturday Numbers from HQ
Stephen Hunt • June 10th, 2025 4:20 PM • 4 min read
ELLERSLIE
Speed Ratings
How the track played…
There was one leader that won, with winners coming as far back as 9.8L (Moxie) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Winners were in lanes 4,4,4,2,5,3,4,3,3,2.
Track raced fairly with an even spread of on/off pace winners across the day. Lanes 1-2 were best in run, but then the winners tended to get away from the rail from the 400m point, with lanes 2-5 most advantaged. I would be bonusing any runner that came back and wide (6+ lanes) in the home straight.
Pokuru Gold’s 91 rating matched his win at Ellerslie three starts ago. However, one of the potential reasons for not recording a new peak was a notable lack of pace in the first 600m of the race. They went over fourteen lengths slower to the 600m mark than is typical for Open Class standard and barely above standard from the 600m to 400m mark. This race was mainly about a dash over the final 400m.
Watching live I felt the well supported favourite in Judicial may have gone too slow for his own good and the data backs that up. For me it was a case of too slow for too long up front and even though the horse was first up for 120 days, the slow pace contributed to the three-year-old to over race.
More races are lost by leaders going "too slow for too long" rather than "too fast too early.” I explain in more detail the influence of race shapes at the bottom of this article.
Major Major improved off his 89.5 rating win at Pukekoke in April to run 91.2 and win the Open Class 2100m. The pace set by Khan Hunter was very solid, making the race a genuine test of 2100m speed. Major Major was perfectly positioned and rated by Kelly Myers, only 2.1 lengths off the lead at the 600m. Major Major maintained relatively even sectional ratings and finished with a strong last 600 (+1.6 lengths), giving little excuses to the beaten runners.
Midnight Scandal produced a good front-running display to win the Open 1400m, achieving a career-best rating of 90. This marks a slight improvement from her previous peak of 88.2 at her last start and continues her upward trend after an 87.4 rating at the end of last campaign. While the win secured her first Open Class success, Midnight Scandal’s 90 rating does fall slightly below the class of the race, sitting 0.6 lengths under standard.
PACE EFFECT ON LEADERS
The study of race speed and the way a race is run (often referred to as the 'race shape') has been the foundation of my form analysis and betting for more than 10 years.
The advent of more freely available sectional-time data over that time means that all punters can now dig deeper into this aspect of racing and use it to improve their game. I strongly encourage it.
The analysis of racing using sectional times typically starts with the early speed.
The early speed has a major influence on the outcome of each race and is naturally set and controlled by the jockeys riding the on-pace runners (i.e. leaders and those settling less than a length from the lead).
The generally accepted wisdom in racing is that a slow early speed will better suit on-pace runners.
Is that true? And to what extent?
Let's look at some data…
*Chances up to $10 SP from 2018
👉Leaders with a genuine chance (up to $10 SP) have a strike rate that varies between 37.2% and 15.6%, depending on the race shape. In contrast, horses positioned further back only manage a 10%-12% SR when the race shape is against them but can improve to 18%-20% when conditions are more favourable.
💡Understanding how race shape affects a horse's winning potential offers deeper insights into their form and the ratings they achieved.
💰Spotting horses better suited to the upcoming race shape and their likely position in-running can be a powerful angle for identifying great bets.
GOING TOO SLOW, FOR TOO LONG
If a jockey is still going at a slow or even moderate to below-average speed between the 600m and 400m, then on average they are reducing their chance of winning the race.
In simple terms, it is possible to go too slow for too long!
My theory on why this is the case revolves around giving away the momentum initiative and advantage against those runners back off the pace.
Once a jockey establishes an on-pace position and is able to go slowly to the 800-metre mark or even the 600-metre mark, they've gained a significant advantage over those behind.
However, if they go too slow for too long, especially between the 600m and 400m, then it gives those back off the pace the chance to make up ground cheaply, without needing to exert anything near maximum energy.
The jockey on the on-pace runner gives away some of their advantage gained earlier.
On the other hand, if the jockey can increase the speed somewhere between the 800m and 600m and then run a faster 600 to 400-metre split, then those chasing from back off the pace need to be put under more pressure, accelerate more quickly and burn more energy to make up ground. It's much tougher for them.
When this happens, the on-pace runner is the one taking the momentum initiative and as a result they increase their win and place strike-rate above the average.
In some cases, it may be the talent of the horse that impacts the ability of the jockey to run a faster 600 to 400-metre split, but if I look at better-credentialled chances in each race (i.e. up to $10 SP) then the pattern is the same.
