Stephen Hunt has run the numbers on New Zealand Oaks Day
Stephen Hunt • March 26th, 2025 10:19 AM • 5 min read
TRENTHAM
Speed Ratings
How the track played…
There was one leader that won, with winners coming as far back as 5.7L (Basel Warrior) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Winners were in lanes 5,3,3,5,8,5,5,2,4.
No pace bias on the day; winners were mostly one-off in the run and then lanes 3+ in the straight.
(Click here to read Stephen Hunt's article from March 24th where he breaks down how to best understand speed ratings, and in particular WFA Performance ratings)
(R5) New Zealand St Leger 2500m
Wolfgang has had a remarkable preparation, which has been going on for some time since he resumed on 7th September 2024 when beating Nereus on the first day of the Hawkes Bay Carnival. In that time, he’s had the thirteen race starts (two in Australia) for four wins with a peak rating of 92.6 from his fourth placing in the Geelong Cup over 2400m.
On Saturday, while benefitting from the conditions of the race (SW&P), the son of Puccini showcased a terrific turn of foot when having to overcome an unsuitable race shape, closing rapidly from the 400m and fighting strongly to grab Final Return on the line, rating 91.5 in the race.
As I wrote after his Wellington Cup win, Wolfgang has shown he's equally effective in tough staying tests and races requiring faster sectional speed. That versatility is an asset, but he will need to find five to six lengths in his ratings if the dream to be in the finish of a Melbourne Cup is to become a reality.
(R6) Cuddle Stakes 1600m
Our Jumala scored her first black-type victory in the Group 3 Cuddle Stakes, just prevailing in a tight finish over Pearl Of Alsace (91.8) with just 0.5 lengths between the first three horses and 2.3 lengths between the first seven horses across the line. The measures on the clock from this race and compressed margins resulted in a 92 rating for Our Jumala, which is a career high but moderate in the context of the history of this race. The last three winners have rated higher: Hi Yo Sass Bomb (95), Pearl Of Alsace (93) and Sinarahma (92.2). Concert Hall is the benchmark for the race, rating 97.4 in 2019.
(R7) Wellington Guineas 1400m
Vegas Queen caused a major upset in the Group 2 feature, defying her $34 starting price to win over 1400m. The race was influenced by a moderate pace to the 800m mark, followed by just an even tempo to the 400m, with the final section being the fastest of the race. That race shape favoured those near the lead, including Vegas Queen, who capitalised on her leading position while still producing a strong final 200m sprint to earn her winning rating.
While the win secured her important Stakes success, Vegas Queen’s 87 rating did fall well below the standard set by recent winners of the race, sitting 2 lengths under the 91 median rating for Wellington Guineas winners since 2017. Vegas Queen’s 87 rating is the lowest in that timeframe, while top performers like Need I Say More (96.7), Shamus (96) and Grail Seeker (93) set the benchmark in recent years.
Archaic Smile, who was very unlucky after being held up at a crucial stage was arguably the run of the race after also being disadvantaged by the moderate early speed. Following the race the connections of the third placed Dramatic Miss and second placed Archaic Smile, lodged a protest vs first placed Vegas Queen. In my opinion, Archaic Smile would’ve won if she wasn’t interfered with, but I agree with the Adjudicative Committee in dismissing both protests as it was very hard to determine which horse, or horses caused most of the interference.
(R8) NZ Oaks 2400m
Leica Lucy got the better of Dubai Gold in the final 100m to win the Group 1 NZ Oaks. Her 97.5 rating was her third consecutive new peak after running 95.5 and 94 in her two starts prior. Her 97.5 rating sits above the 96.2 average since 2017 and has only been bettered by Bonneval’s 101.5 in 2017 and Savvy Coup’s 97.8 in 2018.
Dubai Gold almost pulled off a big upset over Leica Lucy thanks to Michael McNab’s decisive move to take off from the 600m mark. Her 96.9 rating was a strong new peak, up from a previous best of 88.3.
The table below shows recent winners of the NZ Oaks and their respective ratings.
(R9) Lightning Handicap 1200m
Glamour Tycoon (94.7) and Platinum Attack (93) ran strong new peaks as they ran the quinella in the Group 3 Lightning Handicap.
Last season as a 3YO, Glamour Tycoon gave a strong impression when racing over 1600m that she would be ideally suited when she dropped back to 1200 and 1400m, and we saw that on Saturday. She exploded to a new peak rating of 94.7 (up from 90.7), winning the Listed event.
This Saturday, we may see round two between Glamour Tycoon and Platinum Attack as both horses hold a nomination for the Listed Flying Handicap over 1400m.
(Click here to read Stephen Hunt's article from March 24th, where he breaks down how to best understand speed ratings, and in particular WFA Performance ratings)
Photograph at the top of the page: In the last from Trentham on Saturday (The Lightning Handicap) Glamour Tycoon beat Platinum Attack. Both horses ran strong new peaks as they fought out the finish.
Credit: Race Images
