Stephen Hunt runs the Ellerslie numbers
Stephen Hunt • October 28th, 2025 4:14 PM • 3 min read
FIVE HIGHEST RATED WINNERS FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS
AUCKLAND THOROUGHBRED RACING @ ELLERSLIE
SPEED RATINGS
How the track played…
There was only one leader that won, with winners coming as far back as 9.5L (Sneak Peak) off the leader at the 600m mark.
Race winners were in lanes 2,5,7,6,5,9,10,3.
The track raced relatively evenly, with just off the fence (lanes 3+) around the home turn and in the straight the best ground.
RACE DAY SUMMARY:
Moment Of The Day ❤️ | Belle Cheval (R3) |
Peach Of A Ride 🍑 | Jasmine Fawcett on Harvey Wallbanger (R1) |
Horses To Follow 🔎 | Belle Cheval (R3), Meaningful Star (R6) |
Punters Get Paid 💵 | Belle Cheval (R3), Hinekaha (R8) |
Punters Left It In Thad's Bag 💰 | Vickezzlastcall (R2), Celestial Wonder (R4), What You Wish For (R6) |
Tactics Questioned ❓ | R1 – riders were caught out at a vital stage (700m). |
Forgive File 🙏 | R6 – Meaningful Star (Wide), R7 – Top Shelf (Keen), R8 – Moxie (Wide), Risque Ruler (Hampered/Held Up) + many more. |
(RACE 3) TAB MAIDEN 3YO 1400m
Ellerslie Race 3: 25-10-2025
Belle Cheval announced herself on the weekend with a dominant 88 rating win in the Maiden 3YO 1400. Early speed was almost non-existent, with the field travelling 25.6 lengths slower than Open Class standard to the 600m, before dashing home with a fast final 600m. The ability shown by Belle Cheval to sprint quickly off that pace between the 400m and 100m showed serious talent.
With the crawl and sprint race shape, it can be challenging when assessing the form as on average, better horses run faster times than inferior horses, but a fast time doesn't automatically mean a race was strong, and a slow time doesn't mean it was weak. Overall times are driven largely by the early speed in the race. Average horses run what we consider fast times when they run along at speeds much typical of what we might consider 'standard'. Conversely, even elite horses will run slow times when they go slowly early. Sometimes, depending on how slow they go early, it is physically impossible for a race to run home in the final 600m needed so that the overall race time is anything like decent.
Part of the rating process is to consider the relationship between early pace and overall time, which is done via a series of algorithms that take into account a number of other race variables to determine what I call the True Speed Merit of each race. That's the speed merit once the influence of early pace is taken into account.
There are countless examples where what we know to be better horses run slower times at a meeting than inferior horses. Back on 29th of March at Trentham, we saw Kiwi Skyhawk win the Manawatu Classic over 2100m at Trentham in a time of 128.05 seconds, while Waitak ran 129.72 in the following race, winning the G2 Awapuni Gold Cup. That's about 10 lengths slower than the 3YOs, with 1.4 lengths between the first five horses and 4.3 lengths across the first seven, all running significantly faster overall time than Waitak. Of course, we knew at the time those horses weren't as good as Waitak, and the subsequent form has well and truly proven that. The difference was the influence of early speed, which was very fast in the 3YO race and slow for the older horses. As it was, Waitak ran home in 33.38 seconds that day. To run just the same overall time as the 3YOs, let alone faster, he would have needed to run home his last 600m in 31.71 seconds. No horse is doing that.
The Belle Cheval race went out very slowly and came home very fast. The race can't be judged on overall time, that's irrelevant in this scenario. Leaning on other indicators such as the quality of her closing sectionals and True Speed Merit of the race highlights the win as well above average for a maiden grade. To put her performance in context with the fillies who come out of the Soliloquy Stakes, only Well Written 100.5 rated higher. Tajana returned 86.5 running second, while Lollapalooza rated 85.7.
Of course, horses that run very well in sit and sprint races are not yet tested in higher pressure races where they have to do more work early. That's not a reason to knock them though because they've only run slow time, when the tempo of the race gave them no opportunity to run anything but a slow overall time.
Will be intriguing if the connections decide to head South and contest the 1000 Guineas and take on Well Written, based on the weekend she’s right there in terms of that chasing pack.
