On The Right Track - Running The Numbers on Gr.1 Railway
Stephen Hunt • January 23rd, 2026 2:39 PM • 4 min read
Stephen Hunt runs the numbers with speed maps and ratings on the Gr.1 Railway, part of the glamorous Karaka Millions meeting at Ellerslie on Saturday.
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOWERS / SOUTHWESTERLIES
MIN: 15C MAX: 20C
MIN: 15C MAX: 20C
EXPECTED TRACK CONDITIONS
RAIL POSITION:
TRUE
PATTERN:
WITHIN 3L OF LEADER AT 600M / LANES 3-7 IN HOME STRAIGHT.
TRACK:
SHOWERY WEEK, LIKELY SOFT 5/6
After adjusting for the weights, I estimate at least a 99 rating will be needed.
The Rating Count columns show the number of times each horse has rated greater than 98 in the last six months and since Jan 2025 (a little over 12 months). Which seems best as it includes the 2025 Telegraph.
The Body Of Work columns show each horse’s performance rating which was greater than 98 in those same time frames
Early Speed & Position Map - Fast Early Speed:
Alabama Lass (12) has hit the winning standard just once in the last 6 months but was lightly raced in that space. Her 105 standouts from the crowd which was achieved when winning the Kings Plate on Champions Day at the track and distance. If she was to replicate or even go close to that performance rating, the horse to beat.
Jigsaw (3) profiles strongly, and those three ratings have all come in his last three Australian starts. However, he is a horse that excels when able to lead and control. He's 10 wins from 16 starts when leading and just 2 wins from 20 starts when he hasn't led. He's unplaced 11 from 20 when not leading.
Arkansaw Kid (1) doesn't look that well treated with the conditions of the race. At 58kg it gives him just one rating in the last 6 months >98, which came two starts ago. Other ratings at the weights of 97.6 and 96.7 aren't bad but look a tad short of what's needed at the weights.
Platinum Attack (5) is an interesting runner at longer odds that looks capable if he can find his best.
Sweynesday (11) brings the up & comer profile, but on exposed form when adjusting his weight of 55kg he has ratings of 94.3 and 93.3 in the last 6 months. He needs to find 2 to 2.5 lengths.
*This type of view is purely "by the numbers" and letting them fall as they do present a different perspective.
Selections:
Alabama Lass(12)
Jigsaw(3)
Arkansaw Kid (1)
Sterling Express (4)
Jigsaw(3)
Arkansaw Kid (1)
Sterling Express (4)
Suggested Bet: Alabama Lass (12) (Win) & Sterling Express (4) (Top 4)
