Oh too good at Otaki this Thursday: Justin Evans' picks
Justin Evans • November 27th, 2024 2:01 PM
Race 1: (Click here for race details)
3 Rockburn – is a much better galloper than his recent form indicates and if he brings his best to the races he can get home at good odds. Has been competitive in stronger fields than this, his two starts on this track have been very good and he gets the blinkers going on. Expect much better from him here.
6 Bellezor – building a tidy record and once again displayed her smart turn of foot to get up and clinch a R75 win last start at New Plymouth and although she rises in weight from that victory she should get every chance to repeat from her handy gate.
4 The Scunner – nice type of horse who grabbed the southern spoils with a strong first up win at Riccarton defeating fellow CD galloper Crunchie Boy. Rises in class but the in-form Sam Spratt stays in the saddle and has drawn a barrier that will see him get every chance.
7 Bow Hill – charged over top of them off a fast pace to score first up for new trainer Cody Cole on this track on Nov 3. Has won 2nd up and no surprise to see her do it again.
Selections: 3-6-4-7
Race 2:
5 Ballon D’or – twiceplaced on this track as a 2yo and looks a big chance to break maidens here with an easier task than some of his recent assignments. The winners of his last three starts have been Poetic Champion, Sought After and Lux Libertas…that’s some serious quality and he had no luck last start when caught 3 wide the trip. Huge chance.
13 Astoria Brooke – Cody Cole trained daughter of American Pharoah who trialled well before a sound 4th on debut in a tidy maiden field at Te Aroha. Good gate, great rider and she’s a leading contender.
7 Tycoon Boss – smart triallist who was strongly backed on debut and although beaten into 3rd, the winner of that race is a really good type who lines up in the last today. Does have a challenging wide gate which isn’t going to aid his chances but he’s a horse who won’t be taking long to win his maiden.
11 Goddess – a lightly raced Proisir mare who has shown ability and should be a big improver into this new prep. She’s one for bigger odds to add some value into the exotics and is worth keeping an eye on going forward.
Selections: 5-13-7-11
Race 3:
1 Fury Of Flight - plenty of interest around this Zoustar colt, a 1.1 million dollar purchase for Te Akau from the Gold Coast yearling sale. He’s been well tuned up for his highly anticipated debut with three trials, winning two of them and his latest was very impressive. Hard to handle.
2 Curzon Park – trialled well enough before running 6th on debut in a tidy field at Te Rapa and didn’t get all favours. Has the side winkers applied and should bring in plenty of natural improvement to his 2nd start.
5 Luminance – another for the Pertab barn and brings in the most raceday experience having already had three starts at the races, all of which have been reasonable. Should be suited going up in trip and will get every chance from her plum draw.
7 Intention – Awapuni trained Bivouac filly who won a recent Levin jumpout and ran good time. Big watch on debut.
Selections: 1-2-5-7
Race 4:
4 Bozo – scored an overdue win with a strong display in the Trentham mud and now looks ready to step back up over more ground, the last time we saw her over a trip was a strong finishing 4th in the Oaks. Just needs a bit of give in the ground and she’ll be a good chance to get back to back wins.
5 Tikemyson – has returned in great order for local trainer Johno Benner with a big first up win and another very good run when just beaten in the Waipukurau Cup at Woodville. Back up in distance today and deserves plenty of respect, he's a horse on the rise.
3 Weneedashock – should be helped by a months freshen up after some races that didn’t really suit him for one reason or another. Looks better suited here on his home track, he ran 2nd in this race last year and he can give some cheek at each-way odds.
8 Zackery – Showed staying promise in his last prep and will strip fitter here after his two runs back in this new campaign. Had a soft trial at Foxton last week and he looks an improver and is one to follow going into the summer.
Selections: 4-5-3-8
Race 5:
4 Lazio – talented galloper who has been impressive winning four in a row and has continued to step up to every new challenge presented to him. No easy task to keep a winning streak going and he’s been winning on heavy 10 tracks but he’s got plenty of quality and will be no surprise to see him get the job done again for Rihaan Goyaram who has built up a strong association with him.
8 Puketiro – back from an unsuccessful Australian campaign but comes in with some good trials under the belt and she’s unbeaten in 3 starts fresh. Can be potent with the right run and with plenty of pace expected in this race she could be the one to knock them out late. Big chance.
7 Kana – handy sprinting mare who was luckless in the Stewards when badly held up for a run and should’ve almost certainly got a bigger slice of the prize money. Drawn to get a good trip and with Mcnab engaged she’s a competitive Top 3 hope.
6 Idyllic – very fast mare who was too quick for them first up over 1000m at Tauherenikau and although this is tougher, she has the speed to be in this for a long way.
1 Waihaha Falls – classy galloper who returned from Australia with a very pleasing first up 3rd at Trentham behind Lazio and has the blinkers going on here 2nd up, will be aided by an expected fast tempo and look for him to be getting home strongly.
Selections: 4-8-7-6
Race 6:
8 Rusty Lane – the big improver here 3rd up after two runs that were much better than they seem and had very little luck at Ellerslie last start. Has been kept up to the mark with a trial win at Foxton last week and on a track he’s raced well on before, he is set to run a big race.
2 Lightning Jack – quality southern galloper who brings in some of the strongest recent form with a 4th in both the Arrowfield and Thompson in his last three starts. Has been stabled on the track and has raced well here previously, plenty to like about his chances here.
5 Kick On – doesn’t win them out of turn but is on the quick back up after a sound resumption at Whanganui on Saturday where he ran the best last 400m sectional of the day. Out to his pet 1600m distance and Lily Sutherland is in cracking form. Very much adds to the mix in a wide open contest.
6 Manifique – well bred mare who has shown plenty of staying talent and presents here fresh from a 8 month spell. Hard to know what to expect really but has had a few quiet trials and a blinder from her first up would be no surprise here.
Selections: 8-2-5-6
Race 7:
8 Island Life – Progressive filly who was super impressive winning her maiden at Tauranga when producing a sharp turn of foot after running into trouble on the turn. She’s from the wonderful Eight Carat family and looks to have a bright future. From a good gate and with a rider in red hot form she’s a great chance in the Group 3 feature.
9 Ocean Miss – the blinkers went on at Te Aroha and she produced a bold front running win and clocked very good time. Is only going to continue to improve and with the potent tangerine silks on she is a leading chance.
1 He’s Lucid – back from the south where he appreciated going to the mile on a testing heavy track with a big first day win before just getting run of his feet in a very fast two thousand guineas. Will find this a heck of a lot easier than the group 1and is right in amongst the winning chances.
2 Tuxedo – strong debut winner on a heavy track at Te Aroha and going up to the mile looks a real plus. Brings in plenty of upside and should make his presence felt.
Selections: 8-9-1-2
Race 8:
4 Old Bill Bone – produced a big effort for 2nd on debut and then a super impressive win when produced here fresh storming over top of them with a powerful burst. The rise in grade doesn’t look any problem and he can go right on with the job.
9 Testing – landed some nice bets when franking her impressive trial form with a smart winning performance on debut. Mcnab looks to have elected to stay with her over Old Bill Bone which is a very positive lead. She’s another who looks to have a good future.
3 Gohugo – remarkably still only a one win horse after 22 starts as he’s run some crackers and again produced one of those black book placings of his when running the best last 200m of the day here last start on a good days racing. Right in the thick of it again.
1 Omega Boy – Has improved since returning from a spell and comes into this on the fresh side with a tidy trial last week when 2nd to open galloper Rusty Lane. Should get a good run from his gate and he’s in with a first four chance in a competitive race.
Selections: 4-9-3-1
Best Bet:
Race 2 No 5 Ballon D’or
Next best:
Race 7 No 8 Island Life
Value:
Race 1 No 3 Rockburn
Photograph at the top of the page: Island Life won at Tauranga on Saturday November 2nd, breaking her maiden. She races today in Race 7 and is Justin Evans' next best bet of the day. Credit: Race Images
