Matt Cross: Friday's Derby and Christian Cullen preview
Matt Cross • December 4th, 2024 4:44 PM
Race 1 – Aspirational Dream drops back to a rating race from her last start third behind Keayang Zahara in the NZ Trotting Oaks. She’s copped the inside second row draw which on paper isn’t ideal but with an ounce of luck she should be going very close here. George Eliot has a big advantage drawn the front row. She can sometimes be a bit funny behind the gate but with a clean start she’s a huge player. If she can slot in somewhere with a bit of cover she can peel a faster last 400m than anything in this field. Getting back into a grade now where she will win one soon. Grettymac was 4th last week behind Styrax. She ran 1:59 for her last mile on The URB. That was a PB for her and also the second best of the race (Behind the winner). Mobile conditions again she's a must include. Krackaling was first up for 192 days when 3rd here to Sunny Louis on Cup Day. She could get a drag through early and put herself in a decent spot, she loves Addington too. If you’re brave enough from the inside second row then Aspirational Dream is your bet. If not then shopping George Eliot each way.
Selections 10-6-7-12
Race 2 – Rockingood hasn’t been seen publicly since the 29th of May this year. He had a few public runs which included a qualifying heat where he beat some smart ones in that which have since put together good records (Louretta/Shakira). There’s some early market confidence around this horse which suggest those in the know think that he is ready to win on debut. Another one with the inside second row which doesn’t look easy. Where there’s smoke there’s fire as they say, and there looks to be plenty of smoke here. Revolution ran second last time at The Mot, he was first up for 69 days there so I’m thinking he will be even sharper here. He will stay out of the early rush and looks a strong chance. You can take confidence from his trial form too where he beat Miki B who has since won and placed at Group One level. Lochdarragh has been back to the trials since he was narrowly beaten at Ashburton during Cup Week. His trial was sharp, he led and rolled along and won nicely. He’s drawn the outside here but he can do some work and be in the finish. Didjaseemiki also Echappe are going to get some money over the coming months and look top four hopes in this.
Selections 10-12-9-5
Race 3 – Happy to hit and hope here with Miki’s Courage. He’s drawn five, he can run time and there looks a chance that he can cross early. He had nothing go his was racing three wide no cover from the 1000m here on Show Day. He also did a bit of work on Cup Day so it was maybe a week to forget for him. Best version would win this. Song Sung Blue looks to be getting stronger the more racing he gets under his belt. He was a long way back here last week and made up more ground than most in behind Bazooka who looks a player in tonight’s NZ Derby. He finally gets a decent draw too, maybe they will use that to his advantage? He’s a huge hope no matter where he gets in the run though. Itoje won the Tin Shed Cup at the Belfour Workouts last weekend. He looked good too. Gets the blinds on after placing in the South Of The Waitaki. Can win. Buddha is from the in form Regan Todd barn, sticky draw but did look to have a bit left in the tank winning last time. Slight grade rise but the stable is humming. Respect Tabasco, Commander Joe & Dave Duley off their recent runs too.
Selections 6-4-12-8
Race 4 – Ultimate Challenge still hasn’t seen daylight after the South Of The Waitaki last time. She was so stiff, it is actually as simple as her getting a run and she wins. She’s been excellent in all of her starts at Addington, not only to the eye but her sectionals say that she’s well and truly up to going through the grades. Nice price on offer too. Fernleigh Blackbird gets back to Addington after a fair effort at Invercargill last time. I don’t think she is as good when she’s used up early and from this draw tonight she may just have to go back and use her late speed. With the right drag and the right tempo she’s right in this. Terra Sancta coming back in distance is a big favour. She likes to get on with things at the start so if she can cross she’s a lock in for your exotic bets. If they happened to leave her alone in front they might not beat her. Our Shangri Lane is dropping back from the NZ Oaks (8th) and has gate speed from one. She ran a 1:54 MR winning two back so don’t leave her out. Cardi B is better than her last couple too, she’s due to run a good race.
Selections 5-9-8-1
Race 5 – Keayang Zahara looks to be a racecourse certainty again here. They looked after her last week and she won the Oaks in a very slow time. Got clear late and won easily. This is her grand finale for the season, hopefully Jason Lee takes the handbrake off and hits the turbo button. Father Time has the inside draw, he should lead early and dictate what happens after that. He was second to KZ in the Ascent last time. Him and some others are three weeks between runs coming straight into a 2600m race though, that does worry me a little, then again I could be completely wrong but we saw it with Chase A Dream here a couple of runs back, he just didn’t have enough racing and when the pressure went on he couldn’t lift. Anyway, Paramount Kiwi has a slight advantage in the respect of him being on the way up still. A few of these have had long hard campaigns whereas he has only had two runs. His trial last week will top him off nicely and he can run a bold race at his best. Bring On The Muscle will enjoy a hard run 2600m too and should be running on and getting a bit of it if things go to plan.
Selections 4-1-5-12
Race 6 – Don’t Stop Dreaming gets a huge advantage here drawn the inside gate. He should lead, stay in front, and be awfully hard to run down. His second placing in the NZ Cup has him on top in this. Merlin will give it a good shake from barrier six. He’s a wonderful horse who is just unlucky that DSD has drawn better than him here. There have been some great battles between the pair, he’s going to have to be at his best to be giving him a scare here. Rakero Rocket is a good horse in the making. He’s a very good follower of speed as we saw with him last start when he flew home to win. Pinseeker is in the same boat. His unlucky third at The Mot last Saturday would have topped him off nicely. Expect another honest run from Charlie Brown here too. He won't mind how hard or slow they go, he’s always a chance.
Selections 1-6-4-2
Race 7 – Once again we see two trotting greats lock horns. Oscar Bonavena had the better of Muscle Mountain at Methven over the weekend, only just though. 2000m stand here and they’re both off 20m. If Muscle Mountain can step fast and land in front of the former then he may be the one to beat. He holds the NZ Record for 2000m. If Oscar Bonavena has a helmet to follow turning for home though he may get him for speed. Play the quinella. Mighty Logan was second at his last start in the Dominion beating home most of these. He looks to be able to get a clean run through early and could be dangerous to the fav’s if he lands in front. Mystic Max falls into the same category. He enjoys doing his own thing on the top end so if that pair can keep a decent margin between them and the back markers they could be the upsetters. Midnight Dash can place too.
Selections 6-7-3-2
Race 8 – There are plenty of ways you can look at the NZ Derby this year. This is my take. I think that Better Knuckle Up has the gate speed to cross early. Therefore Zachary Butcher might hold a few Aces. His sectionals when winning the Velocity here last time were extremely good. Chase A Dream has work to do from the outside draw. I think Blair Orange will be neutral with him early and see what’s unfolding inside of him. If there’s lots of pressure then there will be a chance to slot in and have one crack at them late. I think his best self is coming with one run, if he gets that then look out. Renegade is a very good follower of speed, my worry for him is that Next Level who draws inside of him probably has the early speed to hold him out. Nonetheless Renegade has shown he’s got the talent to win this. Just needs a couple of things to go his way. We Walk By Faith couldn’t have gone any better here last week. I think the Cullen stable may have got him in the right space to play a part here. Inside second row but if Next Level holds up enough then he might not get shuffled too far back. Bazooka looked really good winning here last week but this is a huge rise in grade.
Selections 8-4-2-10
Race 9 – Best of the night for me here is Aroha Kenny. She’s been giving some decent horses a head start from the stand under handicap conditions. Mobile here so she’s off even marks and should get most of these for speed and talent. Master Class would have gained good confidence from his last run, he was forced to work hard for the lead and never threw it away late in the piece. Royal Del can run a race at odds, he drew the outside second row last time and had to do plenty to get as close as he did. He might even have a bit of a look early. Tu Tangata hasn’t won since September 2023. He’s placed many times between then and now and he’s probably due a winning turn. He just doesn’t hustle enough early in his races which means he has a few lengths to make up mid race and that tells at the end. Definitely include him here though. Aroha Kenny best of the night.
Selections 8-5-7-9
Race 10 – Better Off was a dead heat winning under the most unusual of circumstances last time at Ashburton. She’s taking on maidens again here and she's the logical one based on that alone. She ran a 1:55MR and something similar sees her winning this. Artful Bromac will appreciate getting away from the big boys. Was 6L away in a 1:51MR two runs back and sectionally wasn’t too bad behind Marketplace last time. Looks to have a good turn of foot, if he's in the first four of five turning in we may see the best of him. Berrettini looks a genuine customer on debut, I’ve liked his two public runs. He ran second in a trial to prepare; he was parked for the last 1200m with the winner on his back. He was only worn down the last 50m beaten a neck with 7L back to third. He’s going to win some races. Zoom X was solid enough behind Miki B at Timaru last time. Miki B went on to place at Group One here last week so that form reads well for him.
Selections 2-5-9-4
Race 11 – Kotare Kelso might be one of the best value plays of the night. Bookies put up $9 for him and I think that is a touch of overs. Last start he buzzed the gate, got shuffled back and ran into brick walls turning in behind Bazooka. He drops back in grade here and if he can run up to his personal best then he looks the winner even from the second row draw. Always On Sale was super winning at Ashburton by 9L during Cup Week. He backed that up with a penalty free win at Invercargill. It’s a shame hes drawn the inside second row. Looks a nice horse. Tempo Warrior will cross them if he’s in the mood. Has to be a place chance again. Rushkinoff is another coming off a penalty free win and get the inside draw here. A must have. Bonnie’s Girl could be a sneaky at a nice price too. She’s pretty fast when saved up for one run. She placed in a 1:54MR two runs back.
Selections 13-10-8-1
Best Bet R9 Aroha Kenny
Next Best R4 Ultimate Challenge
Value Bet R11 Kotare Kelso
Longshot R8 We Walk By Faith
Aroha Kenny, Matt's Best Bet of the night, runs in Race 9. Credit: Race Images
