Matt Cross: Canterbury Classic creates Cup contenders
Matt Cross • September 26th, 2024 8:00 AM

As we build our way closer to New Zealand Cup week here in Christchurch we find ourselves at one of the most important stepping stones this week.
The Lamb and Hayward Canterbury Classic (2600m) for decades has been a significant lead up. This week in the feature at Addington the first three horses' home are guaranteed a start in the $1,000,000 finale. So, who is starting to get a little anxious?
B D Joe potentially is one of those. He currently sits 16th in the rankings. Now with some chat that a couple above him may come out, there is some confidence that he will be fine to get in. The worrying part for a horse like him is that if he runs midfield this week and a horse like Charlie Brown, Tact McLeod, Mo'unga or Franco Marek run top three then things start to get interesting.
I think of the main things for connections knowing that they're guaranteed a start is that it takes the pressure off. The other thing to bear in mind is what the drivers are thinking in a race like the Canterbury Classic? If they're sitting behind a horse that must perform surely that ups the ante and makes decision making even more important?
With a full field of fifteen this week it is set to be a great spectacle, made even better knowing how much is on the line for several horses.
I've had a look over the card for you, here's what I've come up with.
Race 1
Reklaws Dream looks a great way to start the night. She's 91 days between runs with just the one trial under her belt. She won that trial beating We Walk By Faith who is one of the better 3yo boys running around. She ended up three back on the fence, got off turning in a dashed up superbly to win coming home in 56.1 and 27.8. Her latest start here at Addington she was a bit unlucky around the corner finishing third. The horse who ran second in that was Shakira who has gone on to win since. Bob Butt has plenty of options from the draw. She has shown to be potent coming from off the pace. Wotsonyamind is 120 days between runs and comes up with the inside second row draw. Has a top form line with Autumn placing behind Warrior Chief, Miki's Courage, and Harrison John. The blinds go on tonight. He ran second to Old Town Road in his sole trial to prepare, running 56.8 and 27.6 on the way home. Just needs some gaps from the draw. Action Major will be improved after a gutsy third fresh up, he's got gate speed too. And Munroe's Mate drops back from the harness 7000 where he pulled him block off and still finished 4th, expect him to hunt up early from the inside gate. Reklaws Dream takes all sorts of beating here though.
Selections 5-10-7-1
Race 2
Major Cyclone caught everyone's eye last start with a brilliant performance to break his maiden. He did the work mid stages, led, and was never getting beaten. Although this is slightly harder, he would only have to produce something similar to win again. A slight worry is that he was sluggish off the mobile two starts back. If he gets out better, then another win may be in store. A Fine Patrick has plenty of ability and a couple of tricks too. I think the mobile start will suit him being off even marks and he may find his early rhythm a bit easier. Has the motor to take this out. Forgiveness worked mid race last week behind Tyron Eros and I thought her run had merit. On The Ultimate Racebook she ran 3.17.4 for the 2600m so although she battled late into 6th, the clock says it was a very decent run. If she can get handy, she's a place chance here. It's So Easy suits the 1980m mobile and has the advantage of experience over some. She was 2nd to Tyron Eros three starts back and that form has been franked, she's likely to be on speed too so she may be worth a wee place bet in this. Major Cyclone and A Fine Patrick both have reputations though and some big targets ahead so they should both perform well here.
Selections 5-7-12-9
Race 3
I'm willing to go again on Irish Dream. He's got the inside second row draw here, and I think you might get a decent price for him. My reasoning is the time that he ran here winning on debut, very few, if any, two-year-olds can peel the splits that he did at that time of year. On a The Ultimate Racebook he ran 221.8-154.4-55.4-27.6. I think we forget Oamaru with him, he got stirred up pre-race and pulled a shoe in the running and had to work, got shuffled back, squeezed up and nothing went his way. If they go hard up front he can win at a nice price. Five Crowns was gallant at Oamaru in a stronger race than this, he's another that did some work. He's a neat little horse that tries all day. Spices Crunch may utilise her gate speed again and if she lands in front you'll get a sight. Captain Moonlight showed great ability at the trials. I think he's had his chance to perform a length better than he has on race day but with the experience under his belt he may lift. Irish Dream is worth another go at odds.
Selections 9-7-6-3
Race 4
This is a very even race with many ways to look at it. I think ultimately it comes down to driver intent at the start. There are some horses fresh up here, do they want gut busters? Or are they out to prove a point going forward? Bear in mind there's some slots on offer for the 3yo slot race on show day so maybe there will be some fireworks. Renegade can win, he's got a great draw in 2. I think he can get over to the pegs and then the pressure will come wider out. Vessem is one that will likely roll forward, he's got race day fitness and a heap of gate speed so he's another with a strong win chance. We Walk By Faith is the interesting horse. If they push the button early and he can cross, then yes, he's a bet. If they go back, then I think no is the answer. He's 140 days between runs but has several good trials under his belt. If you knew he would be lead or trail, then he's a great bet but we cant read minds. That's why it's called gambling. Betterthancash placed second to Tact McLeod last week and he just seems to keep getting better. Hadron Collider has plenty of early toe too, depends on whether they want to light him up this early in his prep. Trump Card will be improved too, don't drop him. I think both Renegade and Betterthancash are bets in that race at their prices.
Selections 2-9-8-6
Race 5
Habibiti Pat got unbalanced at the 200m here last week but still found a way to win. She had to step up last week as they went a lot quicker overall than she had gone in her two previous starts. She was quick to answer the question though and won with ease. Ya Rite Darl has won three out of four and meets the former for the first time. It could be an interesting battle between them, from what they have showed they should be fighting it out. Both Paddy Mcdaddy and Frazzled are going well, maybe both a length or two below the two favourites but they could surprise with improvement. Atlantic City is on debut from the Phil Williamson barn, she's a full sister to star filly Empire City. She might be one to follow. I'd be surprised if Habibiti Pat and Ya Rite Darl weren't locked in battle up the straight this time.
Selections 7-8-10-9
Race 6
Wag Star is a good horse resuming after 131 days. He's had two workouts down south, the first of them I clocked him to run his last 800m in 55.2. He went back for another run a week later and mucked around a bit but still trialled well. He trialled without blinds on but races in them, I think he's very receptive to having the shades on just to spark him up a little. With the times he has run here in that past I'm looking forward to his return. Mighty Looee lands into this race nicely with a Jr Claim on. Could be in no man's land a bit early if they don't come out as hard as they can to cross them. If he lands on pace, then he will notice it being slightly easier than his last few. South Seas Rock has won five out of his last six down south, he's fast off the arm and could give a sight. Bryce's Meddle will keep chugging along all day too so respect him when playing combos. Wag Star is an open class horse in the making and looks a great bet even fresh up.
Selections 7-9-6-4
Race 7
Aardebythehill competes off 35m here, but I don't think it's all bad from there. Looking at the field I don't think there will be a heap of mid race pressure so he could get into the race without having to burn too much. Confessional continues to run great races and another year at this level will only bring his confidence up. He's got 25m on the former and looks one to hold the early key to the race. Zoltan Boscik has come a long way in a short time, being off the front is a huge asset here. With a clean beginnnig he's got the ability to upset some of the older better performed horses. And Highgrove would have needed his first run back, he was 649 days between runs when 5th here last time to Mighty Logan and we know how good he is on his day. I Dream Of Jeannie hasn't put a foot wrong in two runs back and looks like she's going to pick another one up soon. Aardiebythehill each way is a solid play if the price is right.
Selections 9-5-2-8
Race 8
With a clean start here, I think that B D Joe is the horse to beat. If Josh Dickie can get him away fast and lead, then I think there's no beating him. The only worry is the start which he can get wrong. His splits on a The Ultimate Racebook have been super, his latest being 153.5-55.6-27.8. They key will be getting him to the front and if he does, I think he will win. Republican Party won the Hannon Memorial at his most recent start and looks to have come back a lot stronger. Traffic could be a concern from the draw but there's no doubting his class. Beach Ball has had several trials, he usually races better than he trials and from barrier two if he gets out fast is right in play. Charlie Brown should step fast and put himself there as will Daltan Shard. There are many others to note but without over complicating it I think B D Joe is the bet, you're banking on him stepping and leading though.
Selections 5-15-2-7
Race 9
Depending on the opening prices here I think that Helium is on to get on nice and early. He's a natural leader, dropping back in class and there's nothing on the front row that will leave him out to dry early. If he's in front, you'll have plenty to cheer for. Dave Duley has gate speed to work forward and should get a nice run. He was as good as the winner (Justcallmemiki) last week and should only be improved again. Arden's Memory won a heat of the Neville R Series at her latest start which was just over a month ago. She has trialled Ok without being outstanding, but you've got to respect the Purdon/Orange factor. Look out for Borrisokane running on late. I think he is probably a better horse when following a hot tempo which he should get here. Miki Bennett got a penalty free win at Oamaru last time, not the best draw and hasn't performed that well at Addington but maybe he can turn that around here. Helium though should lead and take beating.
Selections 8-4-3-7
Race 10
Mr Kaplan showed a heap of gate speed to get forward from a similar draw to win last time. Likely she will go forward and lead again and for that reason this week she's the horse to beat. I think Princess Meritaten is a better horse, but she's got the outside second row draw for her first run back in 175 days. Her latest trial was nothing short of excellent. She came home in 56.6 and 27.4. The times she has run here in the past say that she's got something special under the bonnet. She does follow out Terra Sancta who might roll forward and be in speed early. Dance Till Dawn is due to show something like her best, not everything has gone her way this prep, I would say be hopeful rather than confident with her. Sweet Diamond on her day is a good mare too, she could be in no man's land drawn where she though. Mr Kaplan the bet this week, Princess Meritaten the one to follow.
Selections 8-13-6-9
Race 11
Kotare Kelso should be a nice way to end the night here. He was first up for 91 days when 7th in the Harness 7000 two weeks ago. His URB sectionals were 154.9-56.7-28.2. This is a huge drop in class and something similar sees him beating most of these with ease. Follow Your Dream comes into the front row after getting trapped on the pegs last start. She's one of only a couple here who could make her own luck. Westar Molly will appreciate being drawn the inside again, she's a place chance. Delightful Dreams is having is first run in race winning grade but should get a nice trip and ran some solid late splits to score here last week. Kotare Kelso should win this if his last run is anything to go by.
Selections 6-9-1-10
Best Bet R6 Wag Star
Next Best R1 Reklaws Dream
Value Bets
R4 Renegade/Betterthancash
R8 B D Joe
R9 Helium
Multi
R1 Reklaws Dream (Win)
R6 Wag Star (Win)
R9 Helium (TOP2)
Wag Star is Matt's Best Bet of the night. The photograph at the top of the page is Wag Star winning by ten lengths in October, a year ago. Credit : Race Images