Aidan Rodley: Severe bite brings on Melbourne Cup fever
Aidan Rodley • November 5th, 2024 11:11 AM
Once bitten, twice shy. Right?
Unfortunately, I'm a slower learner.
Since I've already established a lack of credibility, take what you're about to read with a grain of salt.
I decided this was the year I was going to confidently predict the Melbourne Cup winner - and get it right.
Right now I'm struggling enough with the first part.
My top three fell into place happily enough but then I relegated my number one choice, swapped around my new one and two and then flip-flopped back again.
So for what it's worth, here's how I see this year's Melbourne Cup.
Having plumped for Vauban last year and watching him fade into 14th place, it made sense I went again.
Obviously, that's not the run that's convincing me to chase my losses. He had credentials that warranted him starting favourite last year and savvy Irish trainer Willy Mullins has tweaked his preparation for this year's Cup, learning from experience to ideally produce Vauban ready to run the race of his life.
He comes through a second placing to arguably the world's best stayer Kyprios in the Gr.1 Irish St Leger, beating Giavelletto, who has gone on to Group Two wins in the Prince Of Wales Stakes and Yorkshire Cup.
A winner of 15 of his 19 starts, Kyprios has gone on to win the Gr.1 Prix Du Cadran and the Gr.2 British Champions Long Distance Cup.
Having won the Londsale Cup fourth-up leading into the St Leger, Vauban has more miles into his legs this preparation and has arrived in Australia later so he doesn't go stale. He also bypassed the Flemington trackwork session the Tuesday before the Cup, minor changes that could well be instrumental in bringing about success.
For mine, his main danger is Buckaroo. A former Irish St Leger placegetter, Buckaroo was plain in his first Australian campaign but under the astute guidance of New Zealand Hall of Fame trainer Chris Waller, he has blossomed this spring.
After wins in the Gr.2 Chelmsford Stakes and Gr.1 Underwood, Buckaroo pushed subsequent Cox Plate queen Via Sistina to a head under the set weights and penalties conditions of the Gr.1 Turnbull Stakes, having to give the mare a kilo. Had he met her on even weights, by rights he would have won.
But his most convincing Melbourne Cup trial came last start in the Caulfield Cup. Suffering interference on more than one occasion, Buckaroo settled back in a race dominated by those on speed.
Buckaroo rushed home for second in a race which saw the other four top five finishers all come from top five positions in the run with 600m to race. It was a mighty trial and arguably the best leadup run produced on Australian soil. The only issue is he has yet to win past the Underwood distance of 1800m.
While impressive last-start Moonee Valley Cup winner Okita Soushi rounds out my top three in the race, I'm hopeful of big things from the Kiwi trio in the Cup.
My favourite horse Sharp 'N' Smart was third in the Moonee Valley Cup with a run suggesting he was looking for 3200m.
His class isn't in question, having won three times at Group One level already but it hasn't been a straightforward last 15 months for Hamilton trainers Graeme and Debbie Rogerson, who have done a sterling job in managing his recovery from a nasty virus that thwarted his four-year-old season.
I'm giving Positivity a bolter's chance too. Having seen her a couple of times this week, she's in fantastic order - and she's a sweetheart to boot, as chill as you could hope from a finely-conditioned thoroughbred.
She had an interrupted preparation when a hoof injury ruled her out of the Caulfield Cup and left her short of full fitness when she was well beaten in the Moonee Valley Cup.
But trainer Andrew Forsman has restored her to full fitness and she might just be the one to cause a boilover.
A Trust In You win would be a boilover too but he's snuck into the Cup for trainers Grant Cooksley and Bruce Wallace and has raced in career-best form in Sydney.
That's my assessment of the Melbourne Cup, always my favourite race, having been bitten by the bug as far back as Kiwi's win in 1983 but more so Empire Rose's win in 1988.
Once bitten, twice shy? Not on this occasion.
Aidan Rodley's selections:
1. Vauban
2. Buckaroo
3. Okita Soushi
4. Zardozi
